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2007-06-21 | 你是“追逐回报”的投资人吗？
刚才偶然看到“老外”写的一篇文章，感觉有些地方说的也在理！索性转到自己的博客上让各位博友也来评评。只可惜是E文的，即使我能勉强通读全篇，但水平毕竟有限，还是做不到全文翻译，就简单的直译文内比较关键的几句话吧。实际上，如果你只看我在里面着重标出的几个数据，也能明白整篇的主题了！
以下为全文转载，题目为《Chasing Investment Retrns》，作者为达斯汀.沃德，作者主要通过互联网提供个人财务咨询服务，十分推崇投资共同基金。具体情况可以参看文后的个人简历。
Chasing Investment Returns
by Dustin Woodard
Don't make the costly mistake of chasing investment returns (or performance).
When deciding where to put your money, what often seems "hot" is certainly not. The year 2000 is a prime example.
当你决定投资时，热点基金常常不是最佳选择。2000年就是一个最好的例证。
One of the biggest mistakes that investors make is to chase performance. Whether it be changing investment advisors, switching newsletters, transferring between funds, or purchasing a new fund, the common goal for the investor is to be in the hottest fund. Unfortunately, they're often in the wrong place at the wrong time.
投资者常犯的一个最大的错误就是追逐回报。无论是更换自己的投资顾问，还是筛选各类时事资讯，转换基金或是买新基金，他们最大的目的无非是想找到一只最热门的基金。不过不幸的是，他们总是站在错误的立场，买在错误的时机上。
To obtain a better understanding of how painful it can be to chase returns, let's turn back the clock to January 1st, 2000. Imagine that you are sitting at home analyzing 1999 returns (yes, grateful you have power and the world did not blow up due to Y2K). The biggest winners in 1999 were Japan funds and Technology funds. After screening for the top performing funds, you decide to go with these five:
Warburg Pincus Japan Small Company (WPJPX) Up 328.7% in 1999
WPJPX,1999年涨幅328.7%
MAS Small Cap Growth (MSCGX) Up 313.9% in 1999
MSCGX,1999年涨幅313.9%
Credit Suisse Inst. Japan Growth (WPIJX) Up 279.9% in 1999
WPIJX,1999年涨幅279.9%
Monument Internet (MFITX) Up 273.1% in 1999
MFITX,1999年涨幅273.1%
Amerindo Technology (ATCHX) Up 248.9% in 1999
ATCHX,1999年涨幅248.9%
The mere thought of returns like these is mesmerizing! If you could even get a small fraction of these returns on a consistent basis, you could retire early!
Fast forward to Jan 1st, 2001. The old saying, "What goes up, must come down" is a painful reality for you. Here is what happened:
Warburg Pincus Japan Small Company was down 71.8%
WPJPX,2000年跌幅71.8%
MAS Small Cap Growth dropped 23.1%
MSCGX,2000年跌幅23.1%
Credit Suisse Inst. Japan Growth shut down and returned assets to investors, but not before it lost almost 60% of its value
WPIJX,2000年被迫清盘，而在此之前已经跌幅达60%
Monument Internet tumbled 56.4%
MFITX,2000年跌幅56.4%
Amerindo Technology fell 63.9%
ATCHX,2000年跌幅63.9%
It may have been easier to stomach these losses if you were lucky enough to have enjoyed the gains in 1999, but you didn't. That's the point.
Does this mean that you should invest in what is out of favor? No. It is simply a display of what could happen to you if you let your desires for huge returns get in the way of rational thinking.
Just because an investment did well last year, does not mean it will do well this year.
去年出色的表现，并不意味今年仍会延续......
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